VolcaPot: Alessandro Tadini

VolcaPot du Lundi 26 Mars 2018 à 14h: Alessandro Tadini

Vent Opening Probability map and Pyroclastic Density Currents hazard assessment at Somma-Vesuvio through a multidisciplinary approach based on physical volcanology and numerical modeling

Somma-Vesuvio (SV) is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. Its surroundings are very densely inhabited with more than 600,000 people living within 6 km of the present crater. Moreover, SV eruptive styles are significantly variable, ranging from relatively gentle lava effusions to devastating Plinian eruptions, while the spatial variability in vent locations has been moderate but had significant effects on volcanic products dispersal area. Despite the fact that numerous field data have been collected and lots of studies have been done, the problem of Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs) hazard assessment at SV has not been fully addressed, and a PDC probabilistic invasion map is still lacking.

This presentation would like to provide an overview of my Ph.D. project, which was focused on the following objectives: a) implementation of a database with the most significant volcanological data useful for the development of a vent opening probability map within the SV caldera; b) development of probability density maps for each volcanological dataset defined in a) and linear combination of such maps (each of them with appropriate weights assigned after an expert elicitation procedure) to obtain a first vent opening probability map with specific focus on explosive volcanism; c) field and laboratory studies of selected deposits of PDCs at SV for better characterizing Total-Grain Size Distributions, invasion areas and total volumes of such PDCs; d) application and partial validation of simplified physical models and numerical simulation of PDC formation and propagation using the new parameters defined in c); e) volcanic hazard assessment at SV in the case of a future reactivation of the volcano through a preliminary PDC probabilistic invasion map.